Last Tuesday, many Americans watched in great surprise as Donald Trump won the presidential election. Just that day, the New York Times had placed Hillary Clinton's odds of winning at 85%, based on a range of state and national polls. But, like the Brexit vote this past June, 2016 seems to be the year of unexpected outcomes.
As predicted, the markets initially reacted to uncertainty as they often do: with losses. Futures for the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 all dropped at least 4% in the middle of the night after Trump's win. But come Wednesday morning, everyone was in for another surprise.
Despite many predictions that the markets would sell-off if Trump won, all of the major U.S. indexes ended the week ahead. The S&P 500 was up 3.80%, the Dow gained 5.36%, NASDAQ increased 3.78%, and MSCI EAFE added 0.05%. The Dow even closed at an all-time high on Thursday and posted its best week since 2011, despite being slightly down on Friday.
Needless to say, these two developments last week gave significant surprises for most people. Let's look a bit deeper at the market's reaction and what may lie ahead.
Understanding the Rally
The markets hate uncertainty, but they love economic growth. After Trump's win, investors saw potential for decreased corporate tax rates, individual income taxes, and government regulation, plus increased infrastructure spending. All of these changes could help drive economic growth.
When you look at which sectors outperformed, you can see who investors believe may benefit from a Trump presidency:
- Biotech jumped nearly 16% on expectations that Trump may not fight price increases as Clinton would have.
- Financials increased 11.33%, because increasing interest rates, deregulation, and infrastructure projects would serve them well.
- Industrials were up 7.96%, which would benefit from infrastructure projects.
Seeing Beyond Stocks
While the major markets posted impressive gains, gold had its worst week in three years, losing roughly 6.2%.
A multitude of reasons come into play, but one stands out most clearly: If Trump is able to hold to his promise of $1 trillion in infrastructure spending, inflation will likely pick up and the Federal Reserve could significantly increase interest rates during that time. As a result, gold's appeal would lessen as other investments offer a more attractive income yield.
Analyzing What's Ahead
Right now, the election is fresh on everyone's minds and directly affecting the markets. But like all major events, another one will eventually capture our attention. As we stand now, the fundamentals tell us that the economy is performing well. Unemployment is at only 4.9%, hourly earnings are rising, and GDP is growing. Thus, there is a good chance that the next big event on the financial horizon is a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in December.
If the Fed does choose to increase rates, we may see additional volatility in the short-run-but the underlying data shows us that the economy is fundamentally strong.
Looking to the Long-Term
Seeing last week's market performance might make you want to find even more ways to capture growth. Remember, just as in down cycles, emotion has no place in investing. We are here to help guide you through these tumultuous times and keep a tireless focus on achieving your long-term goals.
The markets and our political environment may be full of surprises, but our goal is to make your financial life as peaceful and comfortable as possible.
Tuesday: Retail Sales
Wednesday: Industrial Production
Thursday: Consumer Price Index, Housing Starts
Friday: Leading Indicators
Notes: All index returns exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5-year and 10-year returns are annualized. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Treasury.gov. International performance is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Corporate bond performance is represented by the SPUSCIG. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
These are the views of 4th River Financial Group, and not necessarily those of the named representative, and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the Investment Advisor gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information.
Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets.
International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors.
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.
The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.
The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indices from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.
The S&P U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index contains U.S.- and foreign-issued investment-grade corporate bonds denominated in U.S. dollars.
The SPUSCIG launched on April 09, 2013. All information for an index prior to its Launch Date is back-tested, based on the methodology that was in effect on the Launch Date. Back-tested performance, which is hypothetical and not actual performance, is subject to inherent limitations because it reflects application of an Index methodology and selection of index constituents in hindsight. No theoretical approach can take into account all of the factors in the markets in general and the impact of decisions that might have been made during the actual operation of an index. Actual returns may differ from, and be lower than, back-tested returns.
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures of U.S. residential real estate prices, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate. The index is made up of measures of real estate prices in 20 cities and weighted to produce the index.
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
You cannot invest directly in an index.
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